Oscar Predictions: ‘One Battle After Another’ Continues to Dominate as Shortlist Voting Nears and Critics’ Awards Cement a Frontrunner
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Dec. 7, 2025): Awards season volatility is starting to look like the defining theme of 2025, but one constant has emerged across the early precursors: “One Battle After Another” is not slowing down. Paul Thomas Anderson’s epic has now swept major critics’ groups — including Los Angeles, New York and the National Board of Review. With Anderson picking up multiple directing prizes and Teyana Taylor and Benicio del Toro scoring in supporting races, the Warner Bros. juggernaut has become the season’s gravitational force.
But the critics haven’t anointed a single narrative, at least in the acting races. Ethan Hawke’s transformative work in “Blue Moon” earned LAFCA’s gender-neutral lead prize, pushing him firmly into best actor contention opposite heavyweights Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”) and Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”). Rose Byrne, meanwhile, continues her astonishing sweep, winning NBR, NYFCC and LAFCA for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” and placing her on the doorstep of her first Oscar nomination.
International cinema is rewriting the board with Wagner Moura’s surge for “The Secret Agent,” and Jafar Panahi’s continued dominance with “It Was Just an Accident” signal that multiple Neon titles could crowd the international feature lineup, unless a surprise challenger sneaks through.
With the crafts races tightening (and Oscar shortlist voting getting ready to kick off on Monday, Dec. 8), we find “Train Dreams” is gaining momentum in cinematography, with “Sirāt” emerging as an original score spoiler if voters get to it in time.
The first chart projections for production design and sound are below.
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “One Battle After Another” (14); “Sinners” (13); “Hamnet” (10); “Frankenstein” (9); “Wicked: For Good” (8)
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (33); Netflix (17); Neon (16); Focus Features (10); Universal Pictures (8)
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“The Secret Agent” (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) -
Director
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Jafar Panahi
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Josh Safdie
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) -
Actor
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Timothée Chalamet
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) -
Actress
Image Credit: Logan White/A24 Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Cynthia Erivo
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Chase Infiniti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection Benicio del Toro ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Regina Hall
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Peter Mountain/Netflix “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Jafar Panahi
“Jay Kelly” (Netflix)
Noah Baumbach, Emily Mortimer
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler -
Adapted Screenplay
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“No Other Choice” (Neon)
Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-mi and Jahyee Lee
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar -
Casting
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Colle “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jennifer Venditti
“Nouvelle Vague” (Netflix)
Stéphane Batut
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Maisler -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: GKIDS “Arco” (Neon)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids) ***
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Production Design
Image Credit: Marvel Studios “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
Kasra Farahani, Jille Azis
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales -
Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Dan Laustsen
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Łukasz Żal
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho Veloso -
Costume Design
Image Credit: Searchlight Pictures “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
Malgorzata Karpiuk
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) ***
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Film Editing
Image Credit: Warner Bros. “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Stephen Mirrione
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Affonso Gonçalves, Chloé Zhao
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein, Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andy Jurgensen
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. ShawverOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Universal Pictures “Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Sound
Image Credit: Getty Images “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) *** -
Visual Effects
Image Credit: 20TH CENTURY STUDIOS “Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Marvel Studios)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“Hedda” (Amazon MGM Studios)
Hildur Guðnadóttir
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig Göransson -
Original Song
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Dear Me” by Diane Warren
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” by Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson and Alice Smith
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Clothed by the Sun” by Daniel BlumbergOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
Jessica Hargrave, Tig Notaro, Ryan White, Stef Willen
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
Sam Bisbeem Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne
“The Librarians” (Independent Lens)
Maria Cuomo Cole, Jana Edelbaum, Janique L. Robillard, Kim A. Snyder
“The Tale of Silyan” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
Jean Dakar, Anna Hashmi, Tamara Kotevska, Jordanco Petkovski
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
Raney Aronson, Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner -
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection “It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon)
dir. Jafar Panahi
“No Other Choice” from South Korea (Neon)
dir. Park Chan-wook
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon) ***
dir. Joachim Trier
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
dir. Kaouther Ben Hania