Oscar pundits faceoff: ‘Nobody wants to back a loser’
With the first wave of nominations inching every closer, we united two of Gold Derby's historically highest-scoring pundits — Next Best Picture's Matt Neglia and BlackFilmandTV's Wilson Morales — to get insight into their prediction process.
Both agree their "secret sauce" involves looking at as much data as possible — from voters to pundits to the general public, who weigh in with their wallets. This year's box office, in particular, has claimed its fair share of would-be contenders.
"Nobody wants to back a loser," says Neglia. "So if you're perceived as a loser at the box office or even critically, nobody's going to want to throw their support usually behind that. So the general release of a film and its perception within the public eye will translate over to how voters will then perceive it as well."
The "seismic shift" of the Academy going more international has become more important than ever — but the BAFTA nominations (Jan. 27) will be after the Oscar nominations (Jan. 22), reducing any sense of their power as a potential precursor.
So when it comes to the Best Picture race, both (mostly) agree on the top contenders — One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Marty Supreme, and Wicked. So what else makes the Top 10? "Never underestimate Searchlight to get a Best Picture nomination," says Neglia. Adds Wilson, "The sleeper could be Rental Family, and another sleeper that people are starting to talk about is Train Dreams. From Sundance to now, it's the little engine that could."
Where the two start disagreeing is when the debate turns to the Best Director race: Neglia's not as convinced as Morales about Sinners. "I don't think Ryan Coogler's happening," he says; counters Morales, "I think there will be an uproar in the community if he doesn't get it."
When it comes to the Best Actor race, Morales says it may not be locked up just yet for Timothée Chalamet. "He's still young, and the Academy doesn't like to reward you when you're young," he says. "Look how long Leo had to wait."
The debate didn't end there:
• Which actor's Oscar hopes have been "pummeled to death" by the box office?
• Which actress's candidacy is an "online thing"?
• Who is going to get a coattail nomination?
• And whose surprise win will blindside us all?
Watch the full video above.
If the Academy loves OBAA, DiCaprio could become a two time Oscar winner like:
Adrien Brody
Anthony Hopkins
Anthony Quinn
Bette Davis
Cate Blanchett
Christoph Waltz
Denzel Washington
Dianne Wiest
Dustin Hoffman
Elizabeth Taylor
Emma Stone
Fredric March
Gary Cooper
Gene Hackman
Glenda Jackson
Helen Hayes
Hilary Swank
Jack Lemmon
Jane Fonda
Jason Robards
Jessica Lange
Jodie Foster
Kevin Spacey
Luise Rainer
Maggie Smith
Mahershala Ali
Marlon Brando
Melvyn Douglas
Michael Caine
Olivia de Havilland
Peter Ustinov
Renée Zellweger
Robert De Niro
Sally Field
Sean Penn
Shelley Winters
Spencer Tracy
Tom Hanks
Vivien Leigh