I thought I understood the odds when I started my first company. Turns out, I was living in a fantasy. 81% of entrepreneurs believe their startup has a 70% chance of succeeding. The reality? Only 10% actually make it. That gap between perception and reality isn't just a statistic - it's a wake-up call. I've worked with dozens of founders over the years. The ones who succeed aren't necessarily the most optimistic. They're the ones who face the brutal facts early. They validate their assumptions before building. They talk to customers before writing code. They test their pricing before hiring a sales team. The founders who fail? They skip the hard conversations. They build in isolation. They assume their product is so good that customers will just find them. Confidence is essential for any entrepreneur. But blind optimism is dangerous. So before you quit your job or raise that next round, ask yourself: ↳ Have I validated this problem actually exists? ↳ Do people pay for solutions like mine? ↳ Can I reach customers profitably? Hope for the best, but plan for the 90% reality. Your startup's survival depends on it.
Yes! Hope starts the fire, but validation keeps it burning. The real winners are the ones willing to test, listen, and face the hard truths early.
Living in a fanatasy resonates with me. Facing the reality is part of running your own business.
So true
Scary stats. But I genuinely think your first business is the one where you learn the game of business. One of our guests on the podcast (I think it was upcoming episode from Sarah Pittendrigh talked about a mentor asking her if she had failed yet - it was that inevitable.) Get the failures out of the way I say. But I agree - you can be strategic and “assemble” a business based on other people’s success and feedback. My last business I did just that. Substack article on the way.