Predictive Analytics-- Wasted Resources in Current Health Care System
I think Data Analytics holds so much potential. I heartily encouraged my son to pursue a major in Data Analytics (and he successfully finished his first semester as of this article writes the proud dad). That said, I also believe that Data Analytics, Predictive Analytics, Population Health, MACRA, and so many other efforts to improve the current US "health care" system are wasted.
How dare someone say something negative about predictive analytics or population health management in the US "health care" system? Aren't those the newest lifeboats that will save us from the sinking Titanic of American "health care"?
It's simple really. I can tell you right now, with research to back it up, something that will would put Population Health Management and Predictive Analytics on the back burner for years in health care. (Note: I am a big fan of real Population Health and Data Analytics).
Interested?
- The US spent $3.2 TRILLION on "health care" in 2015 [source].
- The top 10 chronic illnesses had direct costs to payers of nearly $1.4 TRILLION [source] and even more indirect costs (e.g., lost productivity) as well as human suffering.
- 80% of chronic diseases are preventable with better Lifestyle decisions [source].
We have data that tell us how to prevent 80% of the diseases that consume nearly 50% of our "health care" expenditures and rob millions of Americans of quality of life and even Life itself. We know this. Right now. This very minute. But we do nothing to change.
So why build more data capabilities in our "sick care" system? What good are more lagging data about A1c levels when we can already prevent cases of diabetes with better nutrition now. Why ferret out a patient for a stent based on blockage (especially when the treatment now shows no improvement vs a sham intervention) when a program like the Ornish Lifestyle Program has a Number Needed To Treat of 1. No, it is time for action... not more analysis.
How to make this happen? Free market competition. Every business likes competition so the American "health care" industry should be more than ready and willing. Trillions of dollars sit with "payers" like Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurers each year. Those trillions of dollars are for the benefit of "covered" patients and come from our employers, taxes, etc. So these are our dollars just earmarked for "health care". Those trillions of dollars go to hospitals, physicians, pharmaceuticals, and others in the medical industry. We know that poor Lifestyle decisions are behind 80% of chronic disease yet none of those trillions of dollars go toward Lifestyle. So let's open up the market.
Let's allow American consumers to choose to use "health care" dollars to improve Lifestyle through nutrition, coaching, complementary therapies, etc. Take the clinical handcuffs off physicians and patients so they may work together to develop holistic care plans that address Lifestyle issues and reimburse for physician guidance as well as the therapies. Physicians are bright people... why limit them to prescribing and monitoring pharmaceuticals when diet, exercise, relationship counseling, etc. may be best?
My predictive analysis is that if we invested in proper nutrition, social work, financial advising, complementary therapies, etc. that are low-risk, create awareness, help with better decisions then the US would have less preventable chronic disease, less waste in "health care" (estimated to be $1 Trillion), and fewer deaths from the current opioid epidemic. This would be far more effective Population Health Management and a great use of Predictive Analytics. All we need to do is allow people to make better decisions with their healthcare dollars instead of waiting for them to need "sick care".
Be Well!
-Tim
Tim Perry, MPA, MS, CPHIMS, PCMH CCE, CISSP is the Chief Information Officer of Consumer Health platform HealthCareToo.com. Tim has a deep passion for transforming and improving healthcare that spans two decades. He is blessed with a wonderful wife and two inspiring children. Tim has practiced Tai Chi (Taiji Chuan) for over 15 years and enjoys cooking wholesome (and easy) meals.
Other Articles by Tim
Can You Handle the Truth about Healthcare?
What If We Treated The Whole Person?
"Why Is Health Care So Expensive"--The Wrong Question
Sick Care vs Health Care: There Is A Difference & An Answer
Not Value Based Care... But Care Based on Values
Bending the Healthcare Cost Curve
Will We Always Wait Until It's Too Late?
Why Patient Engagement Is So Hard: and why it won't change anything
Healthcare Is A Team Sport-- an IT Perspective
A Quick History of the US Healthcare System: How Not To Repeat It (written w/ Microsoft Sway)
The Future of Healthcare Is In The Past
I am a non-medical person. Still, regarding nutrition, why not get all of the junk food out of the vending machines, in grade schools, and high schools. Make healthy food the only option(s) available. Same in the cafeterias. No more hot dogs. no more hamburgers. Build good habits from the start.
The forest from the trees. Employer based, for profit, privately controlled, healthcare access, is an engine to raise costs and sevearly strain business with a burden that should be placed in a single risk pool, without profit.
I agree that there are many opportunities for "investing" in population health. My team at Lean Healthcare East is working with public health agencies to invest in actions that lead to measurable outcomes. We find this work is especially tough because these tend to be siloed organizations without access to outcome data.
Matthew Canter
Great article - nothing like trying to treat "symptoms" as if they are actually "problems". Data Analytics are not the "solution", but rather the starting point to properly identifying the root cause. For our healthcare system, the root cause is behaviors. The costs are increased due to the lack of accountability for negative behaviors. Design in some accountability, and costs will decrease.