Risk Assessment in Energy Technologies

“We didn’t see it coming.” That’s the post-incident phrase no one wants to hear at a battery energy storage site. Thermal runaway in lithium-ion BESS is not just a failure mode—it’s a cascade of escalating heat, pressure, and risk that can unfold in minutes. But what if we could see it coming? This article breaks down the early warning detection systems now being deployed to spot failure precursors—like electrolyte off-gassing and abnormal impedance—before fire and explosion occur. Whether you're designing grid-scale BESS, advising utilities, or underwriting large energy risks, this is the kind of risk reduction engineers can measure. We’ll walk through: - Available detection technologies (gas sensors, thermal mapping, impedance tracking) - Integration with shutdown logic, fire suppression, and SCADA - Key performance indicators for early warning systems - Commercial solutions from Honeywell, JCI/ANSUL, Siemens, and more - Lessons from incidents like the APS McMicken explosion ➡️ Scroll down to read the full breakdown—and leave a comment if your team has tested or installed early detection in your systems.

Hydrogen and Natural Gas Blends Compressor Station Differential Risk Assessment 🟦 1) A current effort in large-scale hydrogen deployment involves blending hydrogen with natural gas in existing pipelines. As this initiative progresses, it's essential to evaluate whether safety regulations, codes, and standards need updating to address the specific hazards. A quantitative risk assessment was conducted by Sandia National Laboratories for various hydrogen-natural gas blends at a compressor station, focusing on key components for the analysis. 🟦 2) Risk assessment matrix: Two risk metrics were identified to assess potential damage to buildings and infrastructure: heat flux damage to structures and the impact of flammable fuel concentrations on vulnerable equipment in case of leaks. Key heat flux values were 35 kW/m² for damage to the compressor building structure and 25 kW/m² for damage to its steel components. 🟦 3) Risk of impingement The risk of a flammable fuel concentration of 4 mol% in the air affecting gas cabinets in the compressor building was assessed for various fuel blends. This evaluation relied on component leak frequencies, the likelihood of leak detection and isolation, and ignition probabilities. A Bayesian model combined generic fuel-source and hydrogen-specific data to estimate leak frequencies. A sensitivity study examined how different leak frequencies, including those from natural gas and hydrogen, influenced risk metrics. 🟦 4) Sensitivity of the heat flux A study examined how heat flux risk is affected by varying ignition probabilities, particularly for blended fuels where the ignition probability is uncertain. This sensitivity analysis compared higher hydrogen ignition frequencies with weighted average leak frequencies based on blend composition. 🟦 5) Findings: - Eleven fuel blends, ranging from 100% methane to 100% hydrogen, were analyzed. - Higher percentages of methane resulted in larger harmful heat flux contours, indicating a potential for more damage. - Increasing hydrogen reduces the risk of damage to surrounding infrastructure for specific components and leak angles. - Overall risk calculations are highly sensitive to component leak frequency and ignition probability. - Natural gas leak frequencies were generally higher than hydrogen in most scenarios studied. - Weighted ignition probabilities significantly lowered risk compared to using hydrogen ignition probabilities. - The relationship between blend percentage and risk was inconsistent when considering weighted ignition probabilities. - At 4 mol% fuel contours, plumes were longer and narrower for hydrogen-rich blends. - Adding hydrogen to natural gas may increase the risk of flammable concentrations near vulnerable infrastructure, despite potentially decreasing heat flux damage risk. Source: see post image. This post is for educational purposes only. What specific safety standards are in place for hydrogen and natural gas blends?

🔍 2025 kWh Analytics Solar Risk Assessment (7th Annual Report) ☀️ 1. Rising Risks: Performance shortfalls are increasingly tied to inverter/tracker faults and module degradation from extreme weather. 2. Hail & Tracker Stow: Colin Sillerud (GroundWork Renewables) and Nicole Thompson (kWh Analytics report that ~75° tracker stow can reduce hail damage. But field results don’t fully match model predictions. Thompson notes hail drives 72.5% of solar insurance claims, despite being infrequent. Frequency and severity are both rising. 3. Jon Previtali of VDE Americas shares a client case: nearly 100% hail-stow uptime, withstanding a hail event with minimal damage. 4. Insurance & Financing: Hail and wildfire risks drive up premiums and limit coverage. Systems with strong risk controls may see better financing and insurance terms. 5. Battery + Cyber Risk: Battery degradation, uncertainty in forecasting, and cyber vulnerabilities remain top concerns for solar+storage projects. 6. Data-Driven Risk: Resilience data is becoming central to underwriting and project due diligence. Takeaways: • Standardize SCADA-triggered stow protocols • Track and document stow compliance • Factor stow and claims data into risk models • Share data to strengthen industry-wide resilience