Groundwork Collaborative

A new blog from Groundwork Collaborative Senior Fellow J.W. Mason breaks down the delayed September jobs report and key takeaways as we parse uneven economic data. While September's report showed recovery success, it's also flashing bright red warning signs ahead for the labor market. First, the pandemic fiscal response worked. Prime-age employment hit 80.7%—a level only exceeded briefly in 1997-2001. Compared to past recessions, where recovery took up to 12 years, this one took three. This wasn't inevitable. In February 2021, CBO projected it would take twice as long to recover and that employment rates would still be more than two points lower than today. What happened? The American Rescue Plan. For the first time in U.S. history, the government fully replaced income lost in an economic crisis, preventing the demand collapse and economic scarring that prolonged earlier recoveries. Second, a weakening labor market is widening inequality. Over the past year, Black unemployment rose 1.8 points while white unemployment rose just 0.1 points. Tight labor markets are a powerful tool for racial and economic justice. Weak ones widen the gap. Third, and most troublingly: Recession warning signs are flashing. Unemployment has risen nearly a full point over two years—slowly enough to avoid triggering the Sahm Rule, but increases this large have historically put us near the tipping point. Any new shock (like a data center investment bust) could send us into a recessionary spiral. The takeaway: Smart policy choices gave us a strong post-recovery labor market. But those gains are fragile, particularly for those at the bottom. Further slowdowns in consumer spending or a drop in capex investment could easily tilt the economy into recession. Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/eN9xNexY

It’s been a busy week at Groundwork! We released two new reports this week on the top issue on American’s minds: affordability. First, in collaboration with State Innovation Exchange and Local Progress + Local Progress Impact Lab, our new affordability agenda outlines 10 key and popular policies state and local officials can champion to meet their voters’ needs. Affordability isn’t just a talking point. It’s the number-one issue facing American families, and it’s time for our elected officials to act like it. The report includes polling in collaboration with Data for Progress showing how policies like tackling food prices by building public grocery stores and bringing down power bills by capping utility rates are overwhelmingly popular across party lines. And today we released a new report in collaboration with The Century Foundation and AFT with jaw-dropping data on just how expensive Thanksgiving is going to be this year. Filling the holiday table will cost 10% more - that’s nearly 3x the rate of overall inflation! 65% of people say they are stressed about Thanksgiving prices. Americans can give thanks to President Trump’s economic agenda for raising prices on everything from spiral ham to cranberry sauce to the pasta you need to make mac & cheese. Our new report outlines the key Thanksgiving staples seeing massive price hikes this year. 💡 Affordability Agenda for All: https://lnkd.in/eRgVJHXa 🦃 A Pricier Plate: Thanksgiving Costs Climb Nearly 10% This Year: go.tcf.org/TurkeyDay

Ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, I had the chance to connect with Lora Kelley at The New York Times Shop Talk section on why Americans hate surveillance pricing. We talked about how the phrase first appeared in The American Prospect magazine--in a collaboration with Groundwork Collaborative, and how it "sits at the intersection of two things most people revile: feeling tracked and feeling ripped off." Companies have been hoovering up our data and using it to fine tune advertising for decades, since the advent of the Internet. But surveillance pricing takes it a step further. Now they are turning that data against you to overcharge you. This means that you might pay more than your neighbor for the exact same item--either because they think you are able to afford it, or because they think you are desperate for it. Companies like to deny using this pricing trick--but as state lawmakers in places like CA, NY, and PA try to regulate the practice, companies are fighting tooth and nail for their right to continue overcharging you. They are even suing on first amendment grounds! Who knew the founding fathers intended to protect price gouging? The team at Groundwork Collaborative has some great work on this coming soon. Watch this space! https://lnkd.in/eFz3zxye

A price tag used to mean something simple: the cost of a good or service. Today, it’s more like a guessing game, one that corporations are rigging to extract as much as possible from consumers. Across industries, companies are deploying sophisticated pricing tactics that make the marketplace unpredictable, unfair, and increasingly unaffordable: 💧 Drip pricing hides the real cost of goods and services behind layers of “service fees,” “delivery charges,” and “resort fees.” The price you see first is rarely the price you actually pay. ⚡ Dynamic pricing uses algorithms to raise prices minute by minute, and not just in response to demand, but to maximize profit. From drive-through burgers to plane tickets, consumers are paying more for the same product simply because technology allows it. 👁️ Surveillance pricing goes one step further: using personal data like your ZIP code, income, or even your phone’s battery level to decide how much you should pay. These aren’t isolated practices. They’re part of a broader corporate playbook designed to turn basic transactions into profit-maximizing experiments. As Lindsay A. Owens, PhD put it: “Price hikes are as old as dirt. But today’s companies have reinvented them — using a dizzying array of sophisticated and deceitful tricks to do something pretty darn simple: rip you off.” 📘 Read our new brief on how corporate pricing strategies are squeezing consumers and driving record profits: https://lnkd.in/eR9b7Mtf

Americans are losing faith in Trump’s  economy because they’re losing ground. 💳 Credit card delinquencies are back to 2010 levels. 🏠 Homeownership is slipping out of reach. 💡 Electric bills are up in nearly every state. 👷♀️ 1 million people have been laid off this year alone. As our Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez puts it: “Every day it becomes clearer that President Trump has no real interest in improving the lives of American families.” 🔗 : https://lnkd.in/g6E9ZPXg

New from Nia Law, Rachel West, and me out from Groundwork Collaborative and The Century Foundation: The scariest part of Halloween this year are the price tags. We find that prices of popular candy packs are up 11% this year, nearly 4x overall inflation. Trump’s tariffs are driving up the prices of candy, decorations, and costumes. These price hikes come as families are facing a broader cost of living crunch. For both seasonal staples and year-round essentials, families are being squeezed in the checkout line. Just last month, grocery prices saw their biggest spike in nearly three years, and have increased overall nearly 3 percent since Trump took office. Read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/es6-GHUb

We released new analysis with The Century Foundation showing that the cost of Halloween candy has jumped nearly 11%  since last year — nearly four times overall inflation. 🍫 Tootsie Rolls are up 34%, Hershey’s variety packs 22%, and Mars favorites like M&Ms and Skittles up 12%.  🎭 Costumes and decorations — 85% of which are made in China — are facing tariffs nearly 40 percentage points higher than at the start of this year. These rising prices aren’t spooky coincidences. They’re the direct result of President Trump’s chaotic economic policies and reckless trade wars, which are hitting families in the wallet while big corporations protect their profits. Even beyond the holiday season, families are paying more for groceries, gas, and essentials. Wages have stalled, and debt is climbing. No one should have to fear the grocery bill more than the ghosts and goblins. Read our full report: https://lnkd.in/gXxUg7xb